OVI for May 2024: Labor demand increases in the second quarter
June 4, 2024
The OVI index continued to fall for the fifth month in a row, but with somewhat weaker intensity, as the annual decline rate amounted to -1.9 percent in May compared to the -5.4 percent recorded in the previous month. In the last 12 months, the average index value was lower by -0.8 percent compared to the previous comparable period, which represents a milder decline compared to the first four months of this year. Cumulatively, the decline since the end of last year amounts to -2.4 percent, but when observed by quarters, the second quarter is higher by 1.4 percent compared to the first quarter, because the seasonally adjusted values in April were positive, while in May they remained unchanged compared to the previous month. Short-term signals from the labor market are therefore moderately favorable and point to growth in activity in the second quarter, but we will be able to give the final verdict on this matter when the data for the current month become available.
The five most sought-after occupations have remained the same compared to May 2023: salesperson has remained the most sought-after occupation, followed by cook and waiter, which switched places, while warehouse worker and driver took the fourth and fifth place. The biggest positive contribution to the index growth rate in May came from job advertisements for cooks and bookkeepers, while the biggest negative contribution came from the advertisements for waiters, car repair workers, and programmers, whose demand fell by 45.9 percent over the year. Programmers also had the biggest decline among the most sought-after occupations, falling by 11 places, from the 20th to the 31st place. The largest increase among the most sought-after occupations was recorded by teachers, who climbed the list by 9 places, from the 32nd to the 23rd place.
Although we recorded growth in the share of job advertisements requiring secondary level education and decrease in the share of those seeking lower or higher levels of education in previous months, in May the ratios remained nearly the same: 17 percent for low, 65 percent for secondary, and 18 percent for higher level of education. However, advertisements requiring secondary level education made the biggest negative contribution to the total number of job advertisements, while advertisements seeking higher levels of education remained unchanged compared to a year earlier. As in April, the southern Adriatic was again the only region with a positive contribution to the job advertisement growth rate, with an annual increase in the number of job advertisements of 15.4 percent. The occupations with the largest positive contribution to the index growth rate in that region were salesperson, cook, teacher, medical doctor/dentist, and repair worker. Advertisements requiring a high level of education increased in the southern Adriatic by as much as 93.8 percent compared to May 2023. The biggest positive contribution to the growth rate came from the occupations of teacher, civil engineer, and professor.
What is OVI?
Online Vacancy Index (OVI) is a monthly index of online job advertisements developed by the Institute of Economics, Zagreb in cooperation with the web portal MojPosao. The index aims to provide timely information regarding current labor demands. OVI index is developed by means of simple enumeration of single new job advertisements whose application deadlines end within the same month for which the index is being calculated. Given that advertisements published by only one web portal are taken into account, the number of job advertisements is expressed as an index (with the base year being 2020).The index is to be interpreted in such a way that the values greater than 100 represent growth when compared to 2020, and accordingly, that the values less than 100 represent a decrease with respect to the base year. The index is seasonally adjusted using the X-12-ARIMA method.