CEIZ index
CEIZ index for January 2026: Annual GDP growth continues in the first quarter of 2026
April 7, 2026
In January 2026, the CEIZ index recorded a decrease of 0.47 index points compared to the same month in 2025. At the same time, compared to December 2025, the index value decreased by 0.24 index points. When observing the individual index components, a lower value in January 2026 compared to the same month last year was recorded by two index components: state budget income from VAT revenues and real retail trade, while the number of tourist arrivals and volume of industrial production index recorded an increase in value. At the same time, compared to December 2025, the seasonally adjusted values of all four index components decreased in January 2026.
The described index movement suggests that economic activity, measured with the annual GDP change rate, continued to record growth in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same quarter in 2025, estimated at 3.1 percent, which represents a mild slowdown compared to the GDP growth rate recorded in the last quarter of 2025. A more precise assessment of the business cycle movement in the first quarter of 2026 will be possible when the index values for February and March 2026 become available.
* Monthly assessment of GDP growth rate based on CEIZ index value is indicative and should be used primarily as information on the current condition and trend of the business cycle in Croatia.
Real GDP
In %, change when compared to the same period of the previous year
What is CEIZ?
Coincident Economic Index of the Institute of Economics, Zagreb (CEIZ) is a monthly composite business cycle indicator developed by the Institute of Economics, Zagreb. Its purpose is to provide timely information on the current business cycle condition. Consequently, the CEIZ index value changes simultaneously with the business cycle, thus indicating the present state of the economy. The CEIZ index was constructed by applying in parallel a dynamic factor model and a Markov switching model. Details on the CEIZ index methodology are described in the paper: Rašić Bakarić, Ivana, Marina Tkalec and Maruška Vizek, 2016, “Constructing a Composite Coincident Indicator for a Post-Transition Country”, Ekonomska istraživanja (Economic Research), 29 (1), pp. 434-445. The CEIZ index is useful in three ways. First, it is a single-number business cycle indicator containing information that would otherwise have to be accrued by analyzing a large number of economic series. Second, unlike the GDP series, it provides monthly estimates on the state of the economy, thus providing information on fine changes that took place in a short period of time. Third, the CEIZ index is available one to three months prior to quarterly GDP estimates, meaning that policy-makers and the general public can observe the current state of the economy in a timely manner.
The index is to be interpreted in such a way that the positive values represent economic growth while the negative ones represent a decreased economic activity.
Attached documents
Otvorena dozvola RH
Coincident Economic Index of the Institute of Economics, Zagreb (CEIZ) is a monthly composite business cycle indicator developed by the Institute of Economics, Zagreb. Its purpose is to provide timely information on the current business cycle condition. Consequently, the CEIZ index value changes simultaneously with the business cycle, thus indicating the present state of the economy. The CEIZ index was constructed by applying in parallel a dynamic factor model and a Markov switching model. Details on the CEIZ index methodology are described in the paper: Rašić Bakarić, Ivana, Marina Tkalec and Maruška Vizek, 2016, “Constructing a Composite Coincident Indicator for a Post-Transition Country”, Ekonomska istraživanja (Economic Research), 29 (1), pp. 434–445.