CEIZ index for June 2019: Slower GDP growth rate in the second quarter of 2019

August 12, 2019

CEIZ index in June 2019 registered its lowest level this year and was -0.3 index points lower compared to the previous month and -0.6 index points lower compared to June 2018, indicating thereby the biggest year-on-year decrease in index value registered in 2019. Considering that the index also had a negative value in May, a downward trend has been observed pointing to slower growth rate. Seasonally adjusted figures show that, in the second quarter, three out of four index components registered an increase in value when compared to the first quarter. These are, in higher-to-lower order: state budget income from VAT revenues, number of tourist arrivals and real growth in retail trade, while industrial production recorded a decline.

Based on CEIZ index trends, we expect the annual real GDP growth rate to amount to 3.1 percent* in the second quarter of 2019, which is somewhat weaker than the 3.9-percent GDP growth rate achieved in the first quarter of 2019, but is bigger than the rates recorded in 2018. Seasonally adjusted data indicate that GDP grew by 0.4 percent in April, May and June of 2019 compared to the previous quarter.

* Monthly assessement of GDP growth rate based on CEIZ index value is indicative and should be used primarily as information on the current condition and trend of the business cycle in Croatia.