CEIZ index
CEIZ index for May 2026: Annual GDP growth slows down in the second quarter
July 28, 2026
In May 2026, the CEIZ index recorded a decrease of 0.69 index points compared to the same month in 2025. At the same time, compared to the previous month, the index value increased by 0.03 index points. When observing the individual index components, a higher seasonally adjusted value in May compared to April of the same year was recorded by one index component: the number of tourist arrivals. At the same time, the volume of industrial production index, state budget income from VAT revenues, and real retail trade recorded a decrease in the monthly seasonally adjusted value. Two index components recorded an increase in value compared to the same month last year: state budget income from VAT revenues and the number of tourist arrivals, while the remaining two index components decreased in value on an annual level.
The described index movements suggest that the economic activity in the Croatian economy is mildly slowing down in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the previous quarter. Based on the index value movements, we can estimate that the Croatian economy will grow by 2.0 percent in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. However, a more precise assessment of the annual GDP change rate will be possible when the index value for June 2026 becomes available.
* Monthly assessment of GDP growth rate based on CEIZ index value is indicative and should be used primarily as information on the current condition and trend of the business cycle in Croatia.
Real GDP
In %, change when compared to the same period of the previous year
What is CEIZ?
Coincident Economic Index of the Institute of Economics, Zagreb (CEIZ) is a monthly composite business cycle indicator developed by the Institute of Economics, Zagreb. Its purpose is to provide timely information on the current business cycle condition. Consequently, the CEIZ index value changes simultaneously with the business cycle, thus indicating the present state of the economy. The CEIZ index was constructed by applying in parallel a dynamic factor model and a Markov switching model. Details on the CEIZ index methodology are described in the paper: Rašić Bakarić, Ivana, Marina Tkalec and Maruška Vizek, 2016, “Constructing a Composite Coincident Indicator for a Post-Transition Country”, Ekonomska istraživanja (Economic Research), 29 (1), pp. 434-445. The CEIZ index is useful in three ways. First, it is a single-number business cycle indicator containing information that would otherwise have to be accrued by analyzing a large number of economic series. Second, unlike the GDP series, it provides monthly estimates on the state of the economy, thus providing information on fine changes that took place in a short period of time. Third, the CEIZ index is available one to three months prior to quarterly GDP estimates, meaning that policy-makers and the general public can observe the current state of the economy in a timely manner.
The index is to be interpreted in such a way that the positive values represent economic growth while the negative ones represent a decreased economic activity.
Attached documents
Otvorena dozvola RH
Coincident Economic Index of the Institute of Economics, Zagreb (CEIZ) is a monthly composite business cycle indicator developed by the Institute of Economics, Zagreb. Its purpose is to provide timely information on the current business cycle condition. Consequently, the CEIZ index value changes simultaneously with the business cycle, thus indicating the present state of the economy. The CEIZ index was constructed by applying in parallel a dynamic factor model and a Markov switching model. Details on the CEIZ index methodology are described in the paper: Rašić Bakarić, Ivana, Marina Tkalec and Maruška Vizek, 2016, “Constructing a Composite Coincident Indicator for a Post-Transition Country”, Ekonomska istraživanja (Economic Research), 29 (1), pp. 434–445.