CEIZ index
CEIZ index for November 2025: Slower GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025
January 19, 2026
In November 2025, the CEIZ index recorded a decrease of 1.25 index points compared to the same month in 2024. At the same time, the index value decreased by 0.31 index points compared to October 2025. When observing the individual index components, growth was recorded in November 2025 compared to the same month in 2024 by three index components: state budget income from VAT revenues, real retail trade, and the volume of industrial production index, while the number of tourist arrivals recorded a decrease. In contrast, compared to October 2025, the seasonally adjusted values of all index components decreased in November.
The described CEIZ index movements suggest that the economic activity, measured with an annual GDP change rate, amounted to 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter in 2024, which indicates a significant slowdown in GDP growth compared to the previous two years. A more precise assessment of the business cycle in the fourth quarter of 2025, as well as the whole of 2025, will be possible when the index value for December 2025 becomes available.
* Monthly assessment of GDP growth rate based on CEIZ index value is indicative and should be used primarily as information on the current condition and trend of the business cycle in Croatia.
Real GDP
In %, change when compared to the same period of the previous year
What is CEIZ?
Coincident Economic Index of the Institute of Economics, Zagreb (CEIZ) is a monthly composite business cycle indicator developed by the Institute of Economics, Zagreb. Its purpose is to provide timely information on the current business cycle condition. Consequently, the CEIZ index value changes simultaneously with the business cycle, thus indicating the present state of the economy. The CEIZ index was constructed by applying in parallel a dynamic factor model and a Markov switching model. Details on the CEIZ index methodology are described in the paper: Rašić Bakarić, Ivana, Marina Tkalec and Maruška Vizek, 2016, “Constructing a Composite Coincident Indicator for a Post-Transition Country”, Ekonomska istraživanja (Economic Research), 29 (1), pp. 434-445. The CEIZ index is useful in three ways. First, it is a single-number business cycle indicator containing information that would otherwise have to be accrued by analyzing a large number of economic series. Second, unlike the GDP series, it provides monthly estimates on the state of the economy, thus providing information on fine changes that took place in a short period of time. Third, the CEIZ index is available one to three months prior to quarterly GDP estimates, meaning that policy-makers and the general public can observe the current state of the economy in a timely manner.
The index is to be interpreted in such a way that the positive values represent economic growth while the negative ones represent a decreased economic activity.
Attached documents
Otvorena dozvola RH
Coincident Economic Index of the Institute of Economics, Zagreb (CEIZ) is a monthly composite business cycle indicator developed by the Institute of Economics, Zagreb. Its purpose is to provide timely information on the current business cycle condition. Consequently, the CEIZ index value changes simultaneously with the business cycle, thus indicating the present state of the economy. The CEIZ index was constructed by applying in parallel a dynamic factor model and a Markov switching model. Details on the CEIZ index methodology are described in the paper: Rašić Bakarić, Ivana, Marina Tkalec and Maruška Vizek, 2016, “Constructing a Composite Coincident Indicator for a Post-Transition Country”, Ekonomska istraživanja (Economic Research), 29 (1), pp. 434–445.