CEIZ index
CEIZ index for January 2025: Annual GDP growth continues in the first quarter of 2025
March 21, 2025
In January 2025, the CEIZ index recorded a drop of 0.85 index points compared to the same month in 2024. At the same time, compared to December 2024, the index value stagnated. When observing the individual index components, all four index components (state budget income from VAT revenues, volume of industrial production, real retail trade, and the number of tourist arrivals) recorded an increase in January 2025 compared to January 2024. At the same time, compared to December 2024, the seasonally adjusted index component value dropped in January 2025 for state budget income from VAT revenues and the number of tourist arrivals but rose for real retail trade and the volume of industrial production.
The described index movements suggest that economic activity, measured with annual GDP change rates, in the first quarter of 2025, compared to the same quarter in 2024, continued to record growth, estimated at 3.6 percent. Economic activity also recorded growth at the very beginning of the first quarter of 2025 compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 but at a considerably slower rate compared to the previous two quarters. A more precise assessment of the business cycle in the first quarter of 2025 will be possible when the index values for February and March 2025 become available.
* Monthly assessment of GDP growth rate based on CEIZ index value is indicative and should be used primarily as information on the current condition and trend of the business cycle in Croatia.
Real GDP
In %, change when compared to the same period of the previous year
What is CEIZ?
Coincident Economic Index of the Institute of Economics, Zagreb (CEIZ) is a monthly composite business cycle indicator developed by the Institute of Economics, Zagreb. Its purpose is to provide timely information on the current business cycle condition. Consequently, the CEIZ index value changes simultaneously with the business cycle, thus indicating the present state of the economy. The CEIZ index was constructed by applying in parallel a dynamic factor model and a Markov switching model. Details on the CEIZ index methodology are described in the paper: Rašić Bakarić, Ivana, Marina Tkalec and Maruška Vizek, 2016, “Constructing a Composite Coincident Indicator for a Post-Transition Country”, Ekonomska istraživanja (Economic Research), 29 (1), pp. 434-445. The CEIZ index is useful in three ways. First, it is a single-number business cycle indicator containing information that would otherwise have to be accrued by analyzing a large number of economic series. Second, unlike the GDP series, it provides monthly estimates on the state of the economy, thus providing information on fine changes that took place in a short period of time. Third, the CEIZ index is available one to three months prior to quarterly GDP estimates, meaning that policy-makers and the general public can observe the current state of the economy in a timely manner.
The index is to be interpreted in such a way that the positive values represent economic growth while the negative ones represent a decreased economic activity.
Attached documents
Otvorena dozvola RH
Coincident Economic Index of the Institute of Economics, Zagreb (CEIZ) is a monthly composite business cycle indicator developed by the Institute of Economics, Zagreb. Its purpose is to provide timely information on the current business cycle condition. Consequently, the CEIZ index value changes simultaneously with the business cycle, thus indicating the present state of the economy. The CEIZ index was constructed by applying in parallel a dynamic factor model and a Markov switching model. Details on the CEIZ index methodology are described in the paper: Rašić Bakarić, Ivana, Marina Tkalec and Maruška Vizek, 2016, “Constructing a Composite Coincident Indicator for a Post-Transition Country”, Ekonomska istraživanja (Economic Research), 29 (1), pp. 434–445.