Modeling and Projecting Supply and Demand for Housing Units in Local Government Units of the Republic of Croatia

Commissioned by: Ministry of Physical Planning, Construction and State Assets of the Republic of Croatia
Project duration: January 12 - September 7, 2024
Project manager: Maruška Vizek
Collaborators: Tajana Barbić, Jelena Budak, Bruno Škrinjarić, Ivan-Damir Anić, Ivona Krezić, Nebojša Stojčić, Ivan Čipin

Summary: 
The goal of the study was to calculate the current housing balance in local government units in the Republic of Croatia and assess its trends from 2021 to 2030. Housing balance is defined as the difference between the supply of inhabitable housing units and the demand for housing units in local government units. The supply of inhabitable housing units is defined as the total number of available housing units (apartments and family houses) suitable for habitation in local government units. The demand for housing units is defined as the total number of housing units needed to meet the housing needs in local government units. In order to project the trends in housing balance in local government units up to 2030, the study used statistical methods to estimate separate models for the supply of housing units and the demand for housing units. Based on the estimation of these models, projections were made for the trends in the supply of inhabitable housing units, the demand for housing units, and the housing balance in local government units for the period from 2021 to 2030, taking into account spatial constraints. Based on the obtained calculations and projections, as well as other relevant characteristics of local units, local government units were classified into larger groups that shared the same or sufficiently similar characteristics relevant to effective housing policy planning, using appropriate statistical methods.