Analysis of long-term fiscal effects of demographic changes

Commissioned by: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Croatia 
Project duration: 2005-2006
Project manager: Danijel Nestić
Collaborators: Zdenko Babić, Iva Čondić Jurkić, Ljiljana Marušić, Ivana Rašić Bakarić, Sandra Švaljek


Project goals: 

To apply a standard European Commission methodology for estimating long-term fiscal expenditure developments connected with aging (health care, pension, education spending etc.) and revenues dependent on demographic structure (contributions for socially-related spending), and to evaluate long-term fiscal sustainability. Other important project goals were to define the need for information necessary for a reliable assessment of long-term fiscal expenditure (information about the structure of health care spending by age and gender, about spending on the care for the elderly and infirm etc.), and to train experts from the Ministry of Finance enabling them to perform this kind of analysis independently in the future. 

Project contents: 
Research started with an elaboration of the methodology for evaluating the fiscal effects of aging and an analysis of the demographic situation and projection for Croatia. Subsequently, the information necessary for the analysis was gathered and processed using the methodology for evaluating fiscal effects of demographic changes in Croatia.